:Product: 0212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 430 km/s at 12/0923Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/0816Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0839Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 072
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10