:Product: 0213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 390 km/s at 12/2123Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 781 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 071
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10