:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 394 km/s at 15/2334Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/1629Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 369 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Feb,
18 Feb, 19 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 071
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  008/010-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/30