:Product: 0218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 18/1509Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 18/1403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
18/1404Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (21
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 071
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  015/022-015/018-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/50/25