:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 471 km/s at 22/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/2043Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3505 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb)
and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 070
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  007/008-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/40