:Product: 0225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 25 2225 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 423 km/s at 25/0001Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 956 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 071
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  006/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20