:Product: 0226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 27 0000 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 369 km/s at 26/0427Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/1026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1808Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1141 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 070
Predicted   27 Feb-29 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10