:Product: 0227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 29 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 27/1410Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1141 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (29 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 071
Predicted   28 Feb-01 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar  006/005-007/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/35