:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 479 km/s at 02/1303Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
02/1303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
02/1308Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 922 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Mar,
04 Mar, 05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 069
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  008/008-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/20