:Product: 0306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 394 km/s at 06/1315Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
06/1208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/0912Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 211 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Mar,
08 Mar, 09 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 070
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  008/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25