:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 387 km/s at 15/1721Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
15/1627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1719Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 070
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15