:Product: 0316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 15/2118Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/1037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/1713Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Mar,
18 Mar, 19 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 070
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 070/069/069
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  008/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/25