:Product: 0329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 29 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 29/0728Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 29/0838Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1050Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 278 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 068
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  009/012-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/50/40