:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 04/0238Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 03/2324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/2113Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 448 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 070
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  006/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10