:Product: 0409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 09/0012Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 09/0544Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/0955Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (11 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (12 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 070
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  007/008-010/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/10
Minor Storm           05/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/45/10