:Product: 0412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 12/0654Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 12/0459Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0834Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 071
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10