:Product: 0420RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 20/0826Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 20/1355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 20/0810Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 185 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Apr, 23 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Apr 068
Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        20 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  011/014-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/30