:Product: 0423RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 449 km/s at 22/2300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
23/0145Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Apr 069
Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        23 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10