:Product: 0425RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 25/0526Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 25/0020Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/0034Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 211 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Apr,
27 Apr, 28 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Apr 069
Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        25 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20