:Product: 0427RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 27/2009Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 26/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1628Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Apr,
29 Apr, 30 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Apr 069
Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        27 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  007/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20