:Product: 0428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr, 01 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 28/1105Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2313Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 249 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Apr,
30 Apr, 01 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Apr 069
Predicted   29 Apr-01 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        28 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  008/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20