:Product: 0501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 01/0727Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 01/0945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/0610Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 191 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (02 May) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (03 May, 04 May).

III.  Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 070
Predicted   02 May-04 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        01 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/25