:Product: 0502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 02/0509Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
02/1048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/0359Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 May,
04 May, 05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 069
Predicted   03 May-05 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        02 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  007/008-008/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/25