:Product: 0503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 344 km/s at 02/2245Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
03/2000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/1825Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 May,
05 May, 06 May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 069
Predicted   04 May-06 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        03 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  008/008-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/20