:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 330 km/s at 15/1927Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/0935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/0859Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18
May).

III.  Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 068
Predicted   16 May-18 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        15 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10