:Product: 0519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 405 km/s at 19/2003Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
18/2341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0521Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 May, 22 May).

III.  Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 069
Predicted   20 May-22 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/05