:Product: 0522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 377 km/s at 22/2021Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/1101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/1408Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25
May).

III.  Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 May 071
Predicted   23 May-25 May 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        22 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/10