:Product: 0601RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (02 Jun) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 435 km/s at 31/2236Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
01/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/2030Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 069
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun 070/072/072
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10