:Product: 0607RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jun 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 433 km/s at 07/2051Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
07/1631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
07/1812Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 162 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jun) and quiet levels on
days two and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jun 073
Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        07 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  011/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/05/05
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    40/05/05