:Product: 0621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 337 km/s at 21/0042Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
21/1826Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 174 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 068
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10