:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 05/0737Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 04/2254Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
05/0359Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 069
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10