:Product: 0706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 06/0601Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 05/2140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
05/2112Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 069
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/25