:Product: 0709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 351 km/s at 09/0243Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/1554Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/0855Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 227 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Jul, 11 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (12 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 069
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  006/005-006/005-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/30