:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 657 km/s at 11/0230Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
11/1540Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/1719Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (13 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 069
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  007/008-009/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/40