:Product: 0714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 396 km/s at 14/0617Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
14/0351Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 222 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 069
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/10