:Product: 0724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 24/1701Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 24/0559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
24/0550Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 221 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 070
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  011/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/20/10