:Product: 0725RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 25/2032Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 24/2335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
24/2249Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 353 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (26 Jul, 28
Jul) and quiet levels on day two (27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 070
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul   NA/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/10/20