:Product: 0726RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 26/0334Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 25/2135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
25/2127Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 260 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 071
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  027/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/20