:Product: 0804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 779 km/s at 04/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/0410Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/0406Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 946 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 073
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10