:Product: 0808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 466 km/s at 08/0035Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2171 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Aug 075
Predicted   09 Aug-11 Aug 074/072/072
90 Day Mean        08 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10