:Product: 0815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/0647Z from Region 2770 (N26W85). There are currently 0 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 311 km/s at 15/0157Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 631 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 071
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 071/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10