:Product: 0820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 326 km/s at 20/0253Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Aug, 22 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (23 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 070
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 070/070/069
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  006/005-006/005-007/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20