:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 23/2051Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/1308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2203Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (25 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 071
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  013/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  007/008-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/35/30