:Product: 0826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 486 km/s at 26/1824Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
26/0224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
26/1509Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 132 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 070
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  007/008-007/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/40
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/30/50