:Product: 0829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 29/0602Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 28/2210Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
28/2212Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 947 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31
Aug, 01 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 070
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  010/012-013/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/40
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/45/55