:Product: 0831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 31/0841Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 31/1032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 31/1025Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3504 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 070
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  021/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  013/015-011/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/40