:Product: 0901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 01/1129Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 01/0405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 01/0433Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 13564 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (04 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 070
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  019/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  011/012-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/40/20