:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 486 km/s at 02/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/0502Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 14197 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 070
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20