:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 14/2118Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 15/0808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/0829Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 069
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10