:Product: 0920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 304 km/s at 20/1035Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/2050Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/1331Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Sep, 22 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (23 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Sep 070
Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        20 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  006/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/25